Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Sales Forecasting Spring 2009, Part 2

Yesterday we asked a few of our blogging peers to forecast how the spring 2009 sales season is going to break. Looking back into our archives, we thought we would list last year's action.
Carolina Herrera: May 17, 50% off
Christian Louboutin: June 1, 40% off
Chloe, June 2, 50% off
Dior: Presale May 13, official sale May 17, 40% off
Gucci: Presale May 20, official sale June 3rd, 30% off, Presale May 28, official sale June 2, 30%
Jil Sander: May 27, 40% off
Jimmy Choo: Presale May 27, official sale June 1, 30% off
Luca Luca, May 22, 20-50% off
Prada: Presale May 18, official sale June 1, 50% off
Michael Kors: May 20, 50% off
Missoni: May 19, 30% off
Nordstrom: May 15, 40% off
Sigerson Morrison: May 26, 30% off

Last year, by mid-May, the department stores were all discounting pretty nicely. Here's the breakdown:
Bloomingdales: May 22, 40% off with coupons for an extra 20%.
Bergdorf: F5 was 30% off and the rest of the store went down to 30% on May 29
Barneys: May 22, 40% off
Neiman Marcus: May 6th, 30% off
Saks: May 26, 30% off

Lila's Take: I expect the sales to start the second week of May, which is a bit earlier than last year. I think many stores will go straight to 40% but others will try 30% and push to 40% and 50% if merchandise isn't moving.

We are also hearing that presales are going to run a bit differently this season. in many boutiques, customers are going to be invited to take their merchandise home during the presale period. Usually presale items cannot be picked up or sent until the sale offically begins.

My crystal ball says that Saks will go straight to 40% but not blow merchandise out at 70% unless the store remains dead.

Keep a watchful eye on Barneys. They are experiencing a bit of a cash crunch and may discount fast and furious to pay for the fall collection.

In the end, the luxury brands get ticked off if their merchandise gets reduced too much too quickly, but maybe they should remember that without these stores there's no outlet for their brands.

What do you think?


Anonymous said...

If I recall correctly Saks did a 40% off sale in early May last year then prices went back up until the 30% off sale. I remember this because I did tons of shopping before mothers day, had everything shipped to my moms house out if NY, saved the tax and then picked it up when I went to see her.

Barneys is in trouble so I expect big discounts there. Saks is not stocked like they used to be so I don't expect 70% off right away. Bergdorfs has tons of inventory still so I think they will mark down faster.

Anonymous said...

hmmm... what about miu miu? any speculations? =)

Anonymous said...

Thanks for this post! I'm so tired of news stories that act as if clothes never went on sale before last fall. Serious shoppers know better.

I went to Barneys pre-sale for men on Tuesday. It seemed like more brands were included than last year (I just looked at co-op; I don't do the designer floor at 40% off). They did not let me take the stuff home; I have to return on Monday.

Anonymous said...

While not what I would call a great deal it's better than nothing if your looking to buy something that will not be going on sale or if your in need of something now. All proceeds go to feed America's hungry.

In Neiman Marcus stores only now, donate $40 to Feeding America and they will give you 30% off through May 2 on full priced merchandise in Contemporary Sportswear, Sport Shop, Dress Collections and Mens Contemporary Sportswear.

Anonymous said...

Expect big sales at Henri Bendel! The store is eliminating clothing and opening 6 small accessories and cosmetics stores around the nation. As reported by the times.

My sources tell me those stores are already underway and set to open in a short period of time. While I don't know all the location I can say for sure there is one coming to The Somerset Collection in Troy MI, a mall which continues to do well despite the economy and auto industry. My guess is that there will be one in Florida, either Orlando area or Bal Harbor, one in LA, Houston and Short Hills.